Research / Reply Rates by Year

REPLY RATES
BY YEAR

Average cold outbound reply rates by year, 2010 to 2026, split by mailbox provider.

Sales.co compiled series · 17 years · Gmail, Outlook, other

Published: September 3, 2026 · Last updated: September 3, 2026

22%
2010 Reply Rate
9%
2023 Reply Rate
2%
2026 Reply Rate (YTD)
-91%
2010 to 2026
Trend
Cold email reply rate by year, 2010 to 2026
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 22% in 2010 22% 9% in 2023 9% 4% in 2024 4% 2% in 2026 (YTD) 2% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall Gmail Outlook Other
Overall rate with the three recipient-provider series underneath. 2026 is year to date, through September 3. Every value is in the data section.
The Series
Average Cold Outbound Reply Rate
2010
22%
reply rate
2023
9%
reply rate
2026 YTD
2%
reply rate
The rate fell 20 percentage points between 2010 and 2026, about 91% of where it started. It fell in 16 of the 17 years and never rose. 2018 is the only flat year, holding at 14% after 2017.
Period Change
Where the Drop Happened
2010 → 2015
22% → 16%-6 pts
2015 → 2020
16% → 12%-4 pts
2020 → 2023
12% → 9%-3 pts
2023 → 2026
9% → 2%-7 pts
The last three years took 7 points off the rate, against 13 points over the 13 years before them.
Rate of Decline
Points Lost per Year
2010 – 2023
1.0
points per year
2023 – 2026
2.3
points per year
Across all 16 steps the average is 1.25 points a year, but the series is two different regimes either side of 2024.
Steepest Year
The 2024 Break
2023
9%
reply rate
2024
4%
reply rate
Change
-56%
in twelve months
  • The 5-point fall in 2024 matches the total decline of the previous five years combined.
  • It is the only year in the series in which the rate more than halved.
  • It did not bounce back: 3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 through September 3.
The 2024 step is five points. No other year in the series moves by more than two.
Observations
What Changed

We tracked the rate and not the cause, so this is observation, not a finding. Two things happened around the 2024 break, and we note them as coincidence rather than explanation. Google and Yahoo introduced new bulk sender requirements in February 2024, which changed what a high-volume sender has to do to reach an inbox. AI-written outreach also spread over the same period, which would plausibly raise the number of messages competing for the same replies.

For the long slide before 2024, three things ran alongside it. Inbox volume went up, so each message competed with more messages. Mailbox providers tightened their handling of bulk mail, so part of the fall may be messages that never reached an inbox. Sequencers made high-volume outbound cheap, which raises volume and lowers the care per message.

None of these are measured here. For causes we can measure on our own sending, the cold email statistics report breaks reply rates down by industry, seniority, company size, tone and length.

We have not measured any of these effects and are not claiming one caused the break.
2026 Year to Date
Gmail vs. Outlook vs. Other
Gmail · 67% of recipients
2.1%
reply rate
Outlook · 22%
1.8%
reply rate
Other · 11%
2.0%
reply rate
  • Outlook recipients replied less than Gmail recipients in all 17 years, by between 0.3 and 5.0 points.
  • The Gmail to Outlook gap narrowed from 4.7 points in 2010 to 1.7 in 2023 and 0.3 in 2026.
  • The 2024 drop hit every provider at once: Gmail fell 56%, Outlook 53%, other providers 57%.
  • Over the full span all three fell by about the same share: Gmail 91%, Outlook 90%, other 91%.
Across the contacts behind this series, 67% of recipients were on Gmail, 22% on Outlook and 11% on something else. Year-by-year provider numbers are in the data section.
Effort per Outcome
Emails Needed per Reply
2010
4.5
emails
2023
11
emails
2026
50
emails
At a 22% reply rate one reply took about 4.5 emails. At 2% it takes about 50.
List Size
Contacts Needed for 10 Replies
2010
46
contacts
2023
112
contacts
2026
500
contacts
That is 11 times the 2010 list for the same result. A hundred replies moved from about 455 contacts to 5,000.
Benchmark
How This Compares to Our Own Sending

These numbers sit well above the 2.66% response rate we measure across 1,288,605 emails sent through our own platform. They are two different measurements. This page is a year-by-year series of average outbound reply rates. That page counts every send through Sales.co between October 2025 and August 2026, including automated replies and bounces, against full send volume.

Use this series to see how the rate moved over time, and the platform benchmark when you want something to compare a current campaign against. Most senders respond to the trend by sending more or by targeting more narrowly; in our own campaigns, changing who is on the list moves the number more than adding rows to it. Our verified B2B email lists are sold by profession and industry.

Most of the increase in list size happened in the last three years, so a target set from 2023 numbers now needs a bigger list.
Appendix

Data

Every value in the series, the provider split, and the CSVs. 2026 covers January 1 to September 3, 2026.

2010 – 2026
Reply Rate by Year
YearReply rateChange vs. prior year (pts)
201022%
201120%-2
201219%-1
201318%-1
201417%-1
201516%-1
201615%-1
201714%-1
201814%0
201913%-1
202012%-1
202111%-1
202210%-1
20239%-1
20244%-5
20253%-1
2026 (YTD)2%-1
By Recipient Mailbox Provider
Gmail, Outlook and Other by Year
YearGmailOutlookOther
201023.2%18.5%21.8%
201121.2%16.2%20.2%
201219.8%16.5%18.8%
201318.7%15.8%18.0%
201417.8%14.8%16.7%
201516.6%14.1%16.3%
201615.7%12.9%14.7%
201714.5%12.2%14.3%
201814.5%12.2%14.2%
201913.7%11.0%12.9%
202012.6%10.0%12.1%
202111.4%9.8%10.9%
202210.5%8.4%10.0%
20239.4%7.7%9.1%
20244.1%3.6%4.0%
20253.1%2.6%3.0%
2026 (YTD)2.1%1.8%2.0%
Download: Gmail · Outlook · other providers. Each has 17 rows.
Published Research

More from Sales.co

Methodology

Sales.co compiled and tracked average cold outbound email reply rates by year for 2010 through 2026. The 2026 figure covers January 1 to September 3, 2026 and is year to date, so it can move before the year closes.

We track the rate separately for three groups of recipients, split by the mailbox provider on the receiving address: Gmail, Outlook, and everything else. The three provider series are published to three decimal places and shown rounded to one decimal above. The overall series is the usage-weighted average of the three, using the recipient mix of 67% Gmail, 22% Outlook and 11% other. For 2010 that is 0.67 × 23.176 + 0.22 × 18.520 + 0.11 × 21.798 = 22.0; the same weights reproduce the published overall figure for every one of the 17 years, which is why the overall column is a whole number in each of them.

Each annual figure is a percentage of contacts emailed. It is an average across senders and industries, so any individual campaign will sit above or below it, and the rounding on the overall series means the year-over-year steps are approximate rather than exact. All four series are published as CSVs and every derived figure on this page is computed from those values and nothing else.

How to Cite This Report

This series is free to cite in articles, roundups, and research. Reference it as Sales.co, Cold Email Reply Rates by Year and link to this page.

Sales.co. “Cold Email Reply Rates by Year, 2010 to 2026.” September 3, 2026. https://sales.co/research/cold-email-reply-rates-by-year

Most-cited numbers from this series:

Data files: overall, Gmail, Outlook, other providers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much have cold email reply rates fallen since 2010?
The average cold outbound reply rate fell from 22% in 2010 to 2% in 2026 year to date, a drop of 20 percentage points and a 91% relative decline. It fell about a point a year through 2023, then dropped from 9% to 4% in 2024 alone.
How many cold emails does it take to get a reply?
At the 2010 average of 22% it took about 4.5 emails per reply. At the 2023 average of 9% it took about 11, and at the 2026 rate of 2% it takes about 50. Ten replies took roughly 46 contacts in 2010, 112 in 2023 and 500 in 2026.
Do Gmail or Outlook recipients reply to cold email more often?
Gmail recipients replied more often than Outlook recipients in all 17 years tracked, by between 0.3 and 5.0 percentage points. The gap narrowed from 4.7 points in 2010 to 1.7 in 2023 and 0.3 in 2026. In 2026 to date the rates are 2.1% on Gmail, 1.8% on Outlook and 2.0% on other providers.
Did cold email reply rates ever increase between 2010 and 2026?
No. The rate fell in 16 of the 17 years and never rose. 2018 was the only flat year, holding at 14% after 2017. The steepest single-year drop was 2024, when the rate fell from 9% to 4%.

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